Natural Disasters and the Philippine Stock

Marites  A. Khanser,; Adrian  P. Galido,

Natural Disasters and the Philippine Stock

Abstract:

This study examines the effect of earthquakes, tropical cyclones and volcanic eruptions on the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) over the period 2 January 1985 to 30 December 2010. The extant literature show varying results with respect to the “gaining from loss” hypothesis of Shelor, Anderson, and Cross (1990, 1992). With a GARCH(2,2)-M specification, support for the “gaining from loss” hypothesis was evident for earthquakes and tropical cyclones. Overall, disasters have an insignificant effect on the market returns. Future researches are directed to use methodological alternatives, consider other forms of disasters, and different level (sector or firm) of analyses. Policymakers can consider including market movements in assessing the impact of natural disasters. Investors can attempt to conceptualize disaster-based trading strategies.