Philippine E-Journals

Philippine Enhanced Basic Education (K to12) Dropout Simulation Model

Helmae N. Etulle | Cindy M. Carmelotes

Discipline: Education

 

Abstract:

This study aims to produce a simulation model to predict the number of dropouts when a child completes the K-12 curriculum. This simulation model is to ascertain the impact of the implementation of K-12 on the dropout rate and its prevalent and predictive determinants. Reducing the number of school leavers is, therefore, as important as uplifting the standards and quality of learning for any basic education system. The stimulated randomized datasets were the academic enrollment of a certain grade level. Experimental criterion measures the dropout rate of students per year. The determinants identified which will contribute to the probability of students to drop were: (1) Apas (Parents’ Ability to Support); (2) Blc (Learning Capacity), and (3) Cgs (Government Subsidy). With thorough computation of random datasets, the first simulation run for 100 enrollees were utilized for simulation. In the analysis of dropout probability in a six-year simulation for the completion of students, the findings revealed that the frequency of students’ promotion per year decreases. Upon completion of the curriculum, promotion rate of the population is only 11%. Dropout probability increases per academic year and percentage of dropouts in K-12 implementation will reach to 89%.