Philippine E-Journals

Estimation, control and forecast of COVID-19 disease spread in Central Visayas, Philippines

Roberto B. Corcino | Allan Roy B. Elnar | Gibson Maglasang | Karl Patrick S. Casas

 

Abstract:

The current trend of infections from COVID-19 outbreak in Central Visayas (CV) is posing higher risk of continued spreading. When uncontrolled, swarming of infected individuals to hospitals puts a greater challenge to the health care systems in the region and may breakdown. It is imperative in this situation that data-driven decisions and policies are required the most. In response, this study provided estimates of the epidemiologically important parameters namely, reproduction metric (R0) and infection (), recovery () and mortality () rates, by using a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model. This modified model incorporated control parameters,  and , associated with enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) implementation and observance of social distancing (SD), respectively. For the covered months from 27 March 2020–10 May 2020, results of the simulation estimated these parameters at: R0=3.12, =0.18, = 0.029, and =0.029 with 90% confidence. Moreover, the reproduction metric can be effectively reduced with the combined effect of the control parameters at 𝜎, 𝜔 ≥ 0.5 resulting to an effective R0 below unity. Similarly, this lowered the peak value of infection to 23% (or 7% of the total number of susceptible population) compared to when these measures are not observed and moved the peak time farther as well. While these estimates reflected the timely implementation of ECQ keeping its current level comparable with the country’s estimates and the world, reducing the reproduction metric effectively requires strict observance to both ECQ and SD control measures. Lastly, the temporal dynamics of this metric may not be necessarily true in any given area, and hence geographically induced.