HomePhilippine Coffee Journalvol. 1 no. 1 (2020)

Exportable Production Forecast of Southeast Asian Coffee Exporting Countries

Zandro Catacutan | Mailah Ulep



Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world that stimulates economies around the globe. The increase in its consumption challenges the sustainability of the trade of coffee worldwide. In the Southeast Asian region, there are four exporting countries according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO). These are Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. With the opportunities and challenges in sustaining the coffee exportation, it is essential to determine the need for domestic consumption and portions of production available to be extended to other countries. Hence, this study focused on determining the consumption, production and surplus and/or shortfall of exportable production of Southeast Asian coffee exporting countries. Utilizing the data from the ICO from 1990/91 to 2016/17, forecasting was done using the Autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model. Results revealed that the consumption of these countries is on upward movement. Production for Indonesia and Vietnam is estimated to increase. However, this is opposite to the results for the Philippines and Thailand. The exportable production forecast for Indonesia and Vietnam revealed that they will have a surplus for the next 14 years contrary to the Philippines and Thailand with a forecasted shortfall. Given the aforementioned results of the forecast, Indonesia and Vietnam can sustain their capacity to export coffee at a minimal rate of increase. In the case of the Philippines and Thailand, it is projected that there will be a slowing down in coffee exportation as production declines, increasing the shortfall of exportable production.