Home⇛Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal⇛vol. 11 no. 2 (2023)

The Sectoral Impact of the Rice Tariffication Law on Filipino Rice Supply: A Time-Series Analysis

Aaron Benjmin Alcuitas | Josephine E. Petralba

Discipline: Development Studies

 

Abstract:

The Rice Tariffication Law was implemented in March 2019 to address rice shortage by replacing quantitative restrictions with import tariffs. Prior studies have evaluated its various impacts, but no study has analyzed post-RTL seasonal rice supply data by sector. This study is a quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis using ARIMA models applied to 2011-2020 data. The control group consists of observed values and the experimental group consists of ARIMA-forecasted values post-RTL. Research findings indicate that RTL does not affect rice supply trends in the overall rice supply and household sector. Conversely, in the commercial and NFA sectors, RTL has been observed to significantly influence rice supply trends. This reveals the ways in which RTL altered the dynamics within these sectors, thereby impacting their respective supply trends by influencing local production, buffer stock, and importation. The actualization of RCEF, buffer stock increase, and the development of plans to enhance agricultural sustainability are recommended.



References:

  1. Balié, J., Minot, N., & Valera, H. G. A. (2021). Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 289-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.005
  2. Balié, J., & Valera, H. G. (2020a). Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines. Food Policy, 92, 101876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101876
  3. Balié, J., & Valera, H. G. (2020b). Is covid-19 a threat to the stability of rice price and supply? International Rice Research Institute. https://www.irri.org/news-and-events/news/covid19-threat-stability-rice-price-and-supply
  4. Briones, R. M. (2021). Does rice tariffication in the Philippines worsen income poverty and inequality? Philippine Institute for Development Studies. https://www.pids.gov.ph/publication/policy-notes/does-rice-tariffication-in-the-philippines-worsen-income-poverty-and-inequality
  5. Calicdan, J. P. J., Gavino, C. J., Estrada, H. F., Cortez, J. M., & Balaria, F. E. (2020). Effects of rice liberalization law on rice production, farmers’ wages and government budgets. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science, 6(6), 275-281. https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaems.66.8
  6. Carpio, A. T. (2020). Our rice buffer stock. Philippine Daily Inquirer. https://opinion.inquirer.net/128545/our-rice-buffer-stock
  7. Casinillo, L. F. (2020). Econometric modelling on satisfaction in rice farming under Philippine rice tariffication law. Journal of Research and Multidisciplinary, 3(2), 326-336. https://journal.alhikam.net/index.php/jrm/article/view/38
  8. Casinillo, L. F. (2022). Happiness and profitability under Philippine rice tariffication law: Regression and k-means clustering approach. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 22(4), 141-148. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366577224_HAPPINESS_AND_PROFITABILITY_UNDER_PHILIPPINE_RICE_TARIFFICATION_LAW_REGRESSION_AND_K-MEANS_CLUSTERING_APPROACH
  9. Clarete, R.L. (2018). Red flags in rice tariffication. Per SE. https://econ.upd.edu.ph/perse/?p=7134
  10. Cororaton, C. B. (2004). Rice reforms and poverty in the Philippines: a CGE analysis (No. 57). ADBI Research Paper Series. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156759/adbi-dp8.pdf
  11. Department of Agriculture. (2019). DA bulletin no. 1 on rice: Understanding the rice tariffication law (RTL) or RA 11203. https://www.da.gov.ph/understanding-the-rice-tariffication-law-rtl-or-ra-11203-and-its-ramifications/
  12. De Vera, B. O. (2022). Diokno to Bongbong Marcos: Don’t scrap rice tariffication law. Philippine Daily Inquirer. https://business.inquirer.net/352556/diokno-to-bongbong-marcos-dont-scrap-rice-tariffication-law
  13. Estadilla, R. J. C. (2022). Economic impacts of rice tariffication law on the Philippine rice domestic market. Journal of International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences, 28(1), 76-92. http://issaasphil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/7.-Estadilla-2022.-Rice-Tarification-Law-FINAL.pdf
  14. Evangelista, A. (2018). A staple problem: History of rice crisis in the Philippines. Rappler. https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/212410-history-rice-crisis-philippines-yearend-2018/
  15. Geniston, N. A. M., Cabahug, M. Q., Zanoria, M. L. E., & Uy, K. J. D. (2015). Impact of perceptions apropos economic growth. Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal, 3(2), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.32871/rmrj1503.02.01
  16. Gudmalin, C., Perante-Calina, L., Balbosa, J., Mangahas, J., & Samoza, M. A. (2021). Protecting the poor and vulnerable against the pandemic. ADBI Research Paper Series. https://www.adb.org/publications/protecting-poor-and-vulnerable-against-pandemic
  17. Gutierrez, M. A., Paguirigan, N. M., Raviz, J., Mabalay, M. R., Alosnos, E., Villano, L., Asilo, S., Arocena, A., Jr., Maloom, J. & Laborte, A. (2019). The rice planting window in the Philippines: An analysis using multi-temporal SAR imagery. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 42, 241-248. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W19-241-2019
  18. Neo, P. (2018). Philippine rice crisis escalates as shortages push prices to a three-year high. Food Navigator Asia. https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2018/08/30/Philippine-rice-crisis-escalates-as-shortages-push-prices-to-a-three-year-high
  19. Philippine Rice Research Institute. (2019). Rice tariffication law. https://www.philrice.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/RCEF_FAQ02-RiceTariff.pdf
  20. Philippine Statistics Authority. (2016). Rice and corn stocks inventory June 2016. https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/csd/2022-12/memo_june2016.pdf
  21. Schaffer, A. L., Dobbins, T. A., & Pearson, S. A. (2021). Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models: A guide for evaluating large-scale health interventions. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 21(1), 1-12.
  22. Tobias, A. M. (2019). The Philippine rice tariffication law: Implications and issues. Food and Fertilizer Technology Center for the Asian and Pacific Region. https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/1372
  23. Vertudes, M. F., Musa, C. D., Cosilet, M. A., Salagubang, R., & Balaria, F. (2020). Impact of rice tariffication law in selected rice farmers in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science, 6(3), 147-153. https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaems.63.7

Tools


Copyright © 2024  KITE Digital Educational Solutions |  Exclusively distributed by CE-Logic