Home⇛NRCP Research Journal⇛vol. 24 no. 1 (2025)

Simulated Changes In The Phytoplankton Community Structure At The Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum In The Philippine Sea: Sensitivity Analysis And Possible Temperature Scenarios

Kristina SA Cordero-Bailey

Discipline: molecular biology, biophysics and biochemistry

 

Abstract:

Our study simulated a size-structured phytoplankton community in the Philippine Sea to determine the factors that regulate the vertical phytoplankton distribution using a one-dimensional coupled physical-biological individual-based model in the Virtual Ecosystem Workbench (VEW) software. Three phytoplankton groups (pico-, nanoand microphytoplankton) were governed by specific metabolic and reproductive rates and simulated to be grazed on by copepods, which in turn were controlled by carnivorous zooplankton. Sensitivity analysis using three salinity scenarios (33, 34 and 36 Practical Salinity Units [PSU]) showed that nutrient availability drives the phytoplankton communities towards the end of the simulations, wherein only the 34 PSU simulation was able to recreate the Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum (SCM) profile similar to the 2011 in-situ observation. Three temperature scenarios (+1.0ºC, +2.0ºC, +10.0ºC) were then used to predict phytoplankton responses to changing temperature regimes. The scenarios predicted the SCM would develop deeper than the original simulation and a significant increase in the abundance of the dominant phytoplankton at the SCM, possibly affecting the higher trophic web or increasing the deep carbon export to deeper waters. Although the VEW software has been useful for investigations on plankton dynamics of global and specific regions, our study finds that the physical dynamics of the software is not attuned to simulate the highly variable Philippine Sea setting, limiting the model runs only to the drier months of the year. We suggest caution in the use of the version of the software as it needs restructuring to be more useful in such areas.



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