Economic Valuation of Forecast Inflation Rate in Sultan Kudarat Utilizing Box-Jenkins Methodology: Insights for Sustainable Economic Growth

Vanessa Joy  Villar,; John Harvey  Nobleza,; Reign Cloie  Delicana,; Jomari  Herradura,; Joemarie  Pono,

Economic Valuation of Forecast Inflation Rate in Sultan Kudarat Utilizing Box-Jenkins Methodology: Insights for Sustainable Economic Growth

Vanessa Joy Villar | John Harvey Nobleza | Reign Cloie Delicana | Jomari Herradura | Joemarie Pono

Discipline: Education

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to forecast inflation of Sultan Kudarat based on historical data between January 2019 and October 2024 using Box-Jenkins for informed policymaking and sustainable economic growth. The data was collected from the Philippine Statistics Authority databank, then authenticated by the Philippine Statistics office in Sultan Kudarat. The Box-Jenkins method is used in this research with focus on the ARIMA (5, 1, 1) model for the inflation analysis and prediction. As the study focuses on the policy impact of inflation forecasting, its impact on sustainable economic development and economic resilience is emphasized, especially because of the sensitivity of the region to global and local economic shifts. The most appropriate model to the data was ARIMA (5, 1, 1), which proved to be statistically sound with low volatility and strong log-likelihood values. Diagnostic checks confirmed that the model structure was stationary as well as invertible and the residuals were pure white noise which measures the ability to track inflationary movements in Sultan Kudarat. The moderate inflation forecast for the Sultan Kudarat province is from the fourth quarter of the year 2024 until the year 2030, with reasonable expected variability. These long-term estimates however pose unknown risks, so ongoing evaluation is required. The analysis results portray the potentially significant impact of inflation increase for the Sultan Kudarat economy. The increase in inflation will lower the purchasing power, increase business expenses, and put pressure on government spending. These insights highlight the need for policies and strategies that bolster economic resilience, mitigate the impact of inflation shocks, promote sustainable growth, while striving for enduring economic stability and competitiveness in the region.

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