Home⇛Global Journal of STEM Education & Management Research⇛vol. 2 no. 1 (2026)

Sulfur Dioxide Air Dispersion In The Taal Lake Caldera: An Ordinal Regression Approach And Management Insights From Gaussian Plume Modelling

Jericho A. Trio | Fernando C. Chicano Iii | Patricia Mae M. Clariño | Chris C. Guevarra

Discipline: physical geographical sciences

 

Abstract:

This study investigates sulfur dioxide (SO2) air dispersion within the Taal Lake Caldera—encompassing Batangas, Cavite, and Laguna—using time-series data from July 2023 to June 2025. By integrating Gaussian plume modeling with logistic regression, the research predicts dispersion odds and simulates volcanic trajectories to inform regional mitigation strategies. Statistical analysis reveals that while rainfall slightly increases the odds of low-range dispersion (OR = 1.0128), increased wind speed significantly expands the dispersion footprint, increasing the likelihood of far-field transport (18–40 km) by 33.77%. Gaussian plume modelling identifies a critical hot zone (0–10 km) where concentrations peak at 3.2 g/m3 due to a topographic pipe effect created by the Tagaytay Ridge and Mt. Malepunyo. This constriction triggers the Venturi effect, preserving high-concentration ribbon plumes that bypass standard lateral dilution. Conversely, mid-field(11–17 km) and dilution (18–40 km) zones exhibit monotonic decay as the plume homogenizes. These findings culminate in a tripartite risk management framework—addressing acute intervention in littoral zones, exposure reduction in mid-field municipalities, and continuous far-field monitoring. The study underscores the necessity of a topographic warning corridor that accounts for terrain-based hazards rather than relying solely on distance-based assessments.



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