Developing a Theory of Change for an Alternative Learning System Reform Proposal Based on the 2026 EDCOM II Roadmap
Joe Jr Cagatin | Eralyn Cogling | Krystelle Sweet Oco | Ray Butch D. Mahinay | Edralin Manla
Discipline: social policy
Abstract:
Despite relatively high levels of basic literacy in the Philippines,
significant challenges remain in applying literacy and numeracy skills in
everyday contexts. National data from the Functional Literacy, Education,
and Mass Media Survey (FLEMMS 2024) indicate that basic literacy is 90.0%
among individuals aged five years and above. Functional literacy among
individuals aged 10–64 is 70.8%. While these figures are derived from
different population groups, they suggest persistent challenges in translating
foundational skills into practical application. This study develops a policyanchored Theory of Change (ToC) framework for Alternative Learning
System (ALS) reform, grounded in empirical evidence and aligned with the
national education reform agenda of the Second Congressional Commission
on Education (EDCOM II). A descriptive and policy analysis approach was
employed, integrating secondary data analysis with systematic policy
mapping. National literacy indicators from FLEMMS 2024 were analyzed to
assess variations across regions, learner groups, and age cohorts. Findings
reveal substantial regional disparities in functional literacy, with an
estimated 10.4 million individuals classified as illiterate or low-literate,
alongside persistent literacy gaps across multiple life-course stages. These
patterns underscore the need for differentiated and context-responsive
learning pathways. In response, the study proposes a ToC framework that
systematically links demographic literacy challenges to ALS pathways,
policy and system inputs, and intended outcomes. The study contributes a
structured approach for translating national literacy data into policy-relevant
program design. The proposed framework positions ALS as a flexible system
capable of supporting inclusive, decentralized, and lifelong learning
pathways and presents it as an analytical model rather than as evidence of
demonstrated program effectiveness.
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